Coronavirus NSW Forecast showing new cases

The statistician in me couldn’t help doing a forecast on the 22nd of March

Coronavirus new cases in NSW are currently going up approximately 200% (or doubling) every 4 days. Actions are being put in place to stop the increases. Depending on your view of the actions and people’s attitude these scenarios are either a do-nothing scenario or what will happen.

Between us we can all be diligent and understand that there are some vulnerable people, predominantly the elderly who can be badly affected.

If you want to do your own forecast download the excel sheet and put your own scenarios in.

Coronavirus Forecast 22 March

Scenario 1 – increase
Death Rate	14%
Increase amount	200%
Every so many days	4
Date	New Cases	Deaths
21-Mar	100	14
25-Mar	200	28
29-Mar	400	56
2-Apr	800	112
6-Apr	1,600	224
10-Apr	3,200	448
14-Apr	6,400	896
18-Apr	12,800	1,792
22-Apr	25,600	3,584
26-Apr	51,200	7,168
30-Apr	102,400	14,336
4-May	204,800	28,672
8-May	409,600	57,344
12-May	819,200	114,688

Scenario 2 – increase
Death Rate	8%
Increase amount	150%
Every so many days	7
Date	New Cases	Deaths
21-Mar	100	8
28-Mar	150	12
4-Apr	225	18
11-Apr	338	27
18-Apr	506	41
25-Apr	759	61
2-May	1,139	91
9-May	1,709	137
16-May	2,563	205
23-May	3,844	308
30-May	5,767	461
6-Jun	8,650	692

Scenario 3 – increase
Death Rate	4%
Increase amount	150%
Every so many days	10
Date	New Cases	Deaths
21-Mar	100	4
31-Mar	150	6
10-Apr	225	9
20-Apr	338	14
30-Apr	506	20
10-May	759	30
20-May	1,139	46
30-May	1,709	68
9-Jun	2,563	103
19-Jun	3,844	154
29-Jun	5,767	231
9-Jul	8,650	346
19-Jul	12,975	519
29-Jul	19,462	778
8-Aug	29,193	1,168

Scenario – Decrease

Decrease	70%
Every so many days	4
Date	New Cases
1-May	100,000
5-May	30,000
9-May	9,000
13-May	2,700
17-May	810
21-May	243
25-May	73
29-May	22
2-Jun	7
6-Jun	2
10-Jun	1